Pfizer-BioNTech leads the COVID-19 vaccine race with forecasted sales of $30 billion

Pfizer-BioNTech’s two-shot mRNA COVID-19 vaccine, BNT-162b2, is expected to be the fist globally available vaccine for COVID-19.

It is currently the leading prophylactic vaccine for COVID-19 based on forecast sales, expected to generate $30 billion in sales from 2020 to 2026, with peak sales of $13.9bn in 2021, according to GlobalData.

vaccine Image by Arek Socha from Pixabay
The main challenge for BNT-162b2 is the ultra-cold storage requirement of -80°C

COVID-19 vaccines in demand

Keshalini Sabaratnam, pharma analyst at GlobalData, comments: “Despite being the first available vaccine, BNT-162b2’s sales are forecasted to decline by a staggering 76% in 2022 to $3.4bn due to competition expected from future COVID-19 vaccine approvals. Nonetheless, COVID-19 vaccines will continue to be in demand beyond 2022 if COVID-19 turns out to be a seasonal or a long-term concern.”

GlobalData graph COVID-19 vaccine
BNT-162b2 Q3 2020 global analyst consensus sales forecast

Limited cold chain logistics

The main challenge for BNT-162b2 is the ultra-cold storage requirement of -80°C. The vaccine is likely to suffer poor uptake in countries that have limited cold-chain logistics, whereas Moderna’s vaccine candidate mRNA-1273, which can be stored and shipped at -20°C, could be a more attractive alternative.

Sabaratnam adds: “Pfizer-BioNTech’s BNT-162b2 vaccine breakthrough marks a significant turning point in the global battle against COVID-19. It raises hopes that life could return to normal by next winter; however, post-marketing surveillance will be critical to detect any rare serious adverse events, as there has not yet been an mRNA vaccine that has gone through the full regulatory pathway for approval.”



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