US equities: we are still neutral

By BlackRock Investment Institute

Market performance since early December has been a story of two phases: Emerging market (EM) equities had rallied and U.S. equities moved in line with global equities until the coronavirus outbreak in late January, reinforcing views in our 2020 Global Outlook. Since then, U.S. equities have outperformed and EM equities have stumbled. We see the former pattern reasserting itself over the next 6-12 months as growth recovers – and retain our neutral call on U.S. equities.

Analyst estimates on U.S. corporate earnings for a given year have often tended to start in the 10%-12% range in recent years. But the paths through each year – and the correlations with equity performance – can vary widely. See the chart below.

Earnings forecasts in 2018 climbed throughout the year due to expectations for tax cut benefits, yet the U.S. equity market suffered its biggest annual loss since 2008 – partly due to tightening financial conditions. In 2019, earnings estimates trended lower through the year, but U.S. equities rallied nearly 30% – fueled by easier financial conditions due to the unusual late-cycle dovish pivot by key developed market (DM) central banks. What’s in store for 2020? We see economic growth returning as a key market driver and an eventual uptick – even if delayed by the coronavirus impact – supporting positive earnings momentum. Yet rising uncertainty around the U.S. election and profit margin erosion typically seen in the late-cycle periods are likely to weigh on U.S. equity performance, we believe.

We remain neutral on the outlook for U.S. equities despite encouraging earnings results. About half of the companies in the S&P 500 Index had reported results as of the end of January, with nearly 70% beating analysts’ earnings estimates, according to Refinitiv data. This compares favorably to a long-term average of 64.9%. Analysts currently expect U.S. earnings to grow about 9% in 2020, a hair lower than the typical range for the start of the year. Yet we see that as an ambitious goal given potential for rising wages and other cost increases to further compress corporate margins. Our analysis of U.S. corporate profit margins over the stages of the business cycle since 1965 showed that profit margins have tended to contract in late-cycle periods. High earnings expectations, combined with these late-cycle dynamics and more attractive valuations in other regions, set a high bar for sustained U.S. outperformance.

Rising political uncertainty around November’s U.S. election is another reason for caution on U.S. equities. Last week’s Iowa Democratic caucuses – with their failures to produce timely results or to winnow down a crowded field – offered a taste of the potential for a highly volatile and noisy nine months ahead. A wide range of potential policy outcomes – in areas such as trade and tariffs, taxation, drug pricing, and regulation of energy and technology – could lead companies to defer spending plans and alter business models. This could heighten market volatility compared to recent years.

The bottom line: We stick to our view that global growth will edge higher in 2020 but expect the pickup to be delayed. U.S. equities could outperform on any further growth scares triggered by the coronavirus outbreak, given their quality bias and perceived resilience. But we remain neutral on U.S. equities, given elevated political uncertainties and the risk to margins. Overall, we stand by our moderate pro-risk stance, and expect an eventual growth pickup to support cyclical equity markets such as EM and Japan. Within U.S. equities we favor quality companies with above average return on equity, low leverage and strong cash flow.

About the BlackRock Investment Institute

The BlackRock Investment Institute (BII) leverages the firm’s expertise and generates proprietary research to provide insights on the global economy, markets, geopolitics and long-term asset allocation – all to help our clients and portfolio managers navigate financial markets. BII offers strategic and tactical market views, publications and digital tools that are underpinned by proprietary research.



Latest


16 Feb 2021
Transition management services partnership announced

Standard Bank has signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Chicago-headquartered financial services company Northern Trust, to partner on the…

Transition management services partnership announced

Standard Bank has signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Chicago-headquartered financial services company Northern Trust, to partner on the delivery of transition management services across Southern Africa. Under the partnership, Standard Bank’s clients will gain access to Northern Trust’s full suite of transition management services. Transition Management is a…

16 Feb 2021
Tax free wealth creation with property funds

By Liliane Barnard, CEO and Portfolio Manager at Metope Investment Managers, and Aimee Glisson, Director: Operations, Performance & Risk at…

Tax free wealth creation with property funds

By Liliane Barnard, CEO and Portfolio Manager at Metope Investment Managers, and Aimee Glisson, Director: Operations, Performance & Risk at Metope Investment Managers The tax year, along with the deadline for an investor’s maximum R36 000 annual tax-free savings account contribution, comes to an end on the 28 February 2021. Investors…

16 Feb 2021
Why multi-manager investing is popular

Multi-management has been around for over two decades. This investment management approach is popular among many investors because it promises…

Why multi-manager investing is popular

Multi-management has been around for over two decades. This investment management approach is popular among many investors because it promises to deliver smoother, more consistent investment returns, despite cyclical turbulence of financial markets. Given last year’s drastic swings in financial markets and continued uncertainty on how the Covid pandemic will…

16 Feb 2021
Momentum Health Solutions unpacks COVID-19 vaccine roll-out plan

Momentum Health Solutions announced its COVID-19 vaccine roll-out strategy and how it intends to support both its members, as well…

Momentum Health Solutions unpacks COVID-19 vaccine roll-out plan

Momentum Health Solutions announced its COVID-19 vaccine roll-out strategy and how it intends to support both its members, as well as the uncovered population, in being vaccinated. As the COVID-19 virus continues to spread, a third wave is imminent, should the vaccination rollout not commence soon. Speaking at a recent…


Top stories


10 Sep 2020
How too much choice is draining your brain

By: Paul Nixon, head of technical marketing and behavioural finance at Momentum Investments From the words of Francis Scott Key…

How too much choice is draining your brain

By: Paul Nixon, head of technical marketing and behavioural finance at Momentum Investments From the words of Francis Scott Key that dubbed America “The land of the free”, which stuck, to the unforgettable Mel Gibson monologue where an army of painted Scots were willing to trade their lives for the…

13 Apr 2020
Investors should keep a reasonable investment allocation outside of SA

MoneyMarketing asked Roland Gräbe, the head of Tailored Fund Portfolios at Old Mutual Wealth, about offshore investments in the COVID-19…

Investors should keep a reasonable investment allocation outside of SA

MoneyMarketing asked Roland Gräbe, the head of Tailored Fund Portfolios at Old Mutual Wealth, about offshore investments in the COVID-19 environment and what form a global market recovery will take.

13 Apr 2020
SA’s Proposed Covid-19 Disaster Management Tax Relief

The National Treasury recently issued the draft Disaster Management Tax Relief Bill (Bill) for public comment by 15 April. The…

SA’s Proposed Covid-19 Disaster Management Tax Relief

The National Treasury recently issued the draft Disaster Management Tax Relief Bill (Bill) for public comment by 15 April. The draft Bill, together with its explanatory memorandum, provides clarity with regards the tax relief measures President Cyril Ramaphosa announced on 23 March.

10 Apr 2020
When the going gets tough, farmers are on familiar territory

South African farmers are old hands at adapting to uncertain and daunting circumstances, and our local agricultural industry has proved…

When the going gets tough, farmers are on familiar territory

South African farmers are old hands at adapting to uncertain and daunting circumstances, and our local agricultural industry has proved to be most enterprising in acclimatising to challenges as they arise.


Visit the official COVID-19 government website to stay informed: sacoronavirus.co.za