The ANC is certainly mixed up. Take membership numbers for instance. On the first day of the conference, both Zuma – in his political report – and ANC secretary general Gwede Mantashe – in his organisational report – insisted that the party’s membership had declined from 1.22 million in 2012, to around 770,000 today. Yet a day later, ANC deputy secretary general Jessie Duarte said if you go through the ANC’s database, you’ll see one point three million members – and that membership has actually increased since Mangaung in 2012.
Stephen Grootes, writing in the Daily Maverick, sums it up well when he says the membership figures are a farce.
“Surely Duarte knew about the Political Report and the Organisational Report, and would have been able to explain this before Zuma and Mantashe went public? If not, there’s a much bigger story going on. Or perhaps the party isn’t happy with how the membership story has been played in the media, and is trying to dial it back.
“No matter. What this really tells us is that there are Mantashe’s membership figures, Duarte’s membership figures, and different stories to tell. It is now obvious that many people who were claimed as members before Mangaung were not really active members, but were used simply for voting purposes. It is a dynamic which has occurred many times in the ANC, and is bound to happen again, just before the next conference.
“All it proves, is that the membership figures are a farce, and that it is all manipulated by those who can. In other words, in whichever way it will favour the incumbent.”
And now on to some decisions taken at the forum which may have an impact on investors’ perceptions.
First of all, the ANC has decided that commercial farmers should give 50% of their equity to farm workers. The consequence of this: there’ll now be even less investment in the agricultural sector of the country and there’s also a food security issue here. Not a clever move.
Secondly, the party wants to pull out of the International Criminal Court of Justice (ICC) because the Court has fingered Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir for committing war crimes and genocide during the Darfur conflict. Now Mr Bashir is our new best friend and we must side with him – or so the ANC thinking goes. No matter that most of the international community would disagree. Not a clever move. And to top it all, Bashir may even visit SA again this year.
In a statement, the DA said: “The ANC now sides with dictators, instead of the Rule of Law and justice for those who are victims of genocide. The invitation to the President of Sudan, Omar Al Bashir, to visit South Africa again is a smack in the face of the Rule of Law. Our government is currently in contempt of court for its failure to arrest Omar Al Bashir – and its violation of a court order. To do so again, would be, for a second time, in contempt of an order of the court and in breach of international and domestic law in support of a man responsible for the deaths of hundreds of thousands.”
Meanwhile, the ANC has also come to the conclusion – probably influenced by left wing champion and recent visitor to SA, economist Thomas Piketty – that a wealth tax should be proposed on South Africa’s “haves” – who – should this occur – will happily depart for more pleasant places. Not a clever move.
Yes, there were some positive decisions – but in many cases, these decisions could be difficult to implement – like the one about the National Health Insurance. The ANC would like to fast track the NHI’s implementation, but from where will the money come? How can Treasury be expected to make sure that resources for the NHI are available?
To give credit where it is due, the ruling party made a few encouraging decisions – whether they’ll be implemented or not is another issue: new incentives for companies to employ young people in technical programs, improved co-operation between the state and the private sector in the development of state incentive schemes, the urgent need to eliminate policy uncertainty around mining and a need for the amendment bill of the Minerals and Petroleum Resources Development Act to be speedily finalised.
But the best news of all must be the fact that Zuma made it clear he won’t be around for another term as ANC leader – which is allowed. He cannot, however, serve a third term as SA president.
Click here to read the full mid-term review presented by ANC Secretary-General, Gwede Mantashe